È la domanda che Judy Dempsey rivolge a otto esperti di politica internazionale: Tony Barber, Dimitar Bechev, Thanos Dokos, Ian Lesser, Stratos Pourzitakis, Gianni Riotta, Luis Simón, Stephen Szabo.
Il commento di Gianni Riotta:
Grexit would not be the thermonuclear war feared by former U.S. president Harry Truman and Soviet leader Joseph Stalin, nor would it be the fall of Byzantium. Yet the poisonous negotiations between Greece and the troika of the European Central Bank, the International Monetary Fund, and the European Commission have already destroyed a long-accepted climate in the Old Continent. The sweet utopia of progress, coexistence, welfare, and mutual solidarity in Europe taught to every generation since World War II has given way to nasty confrontations.
Greek public opinion is divided. On the one hand, there is a leftist fight against neoliberalism, a cocktail that mixes Yanis Varoufakis, Joseph Stiglitz, Thomas Piketty, and a splash of ouzo, not prepared to compromise but happy to struggle against capitalist Europe and eager to daydream in a reverie of easy pensions and short workdays. On the other, there is a much savvier crowd, aware there is no such thing as a free moussaka lunch anymore, ready to make sacrifices, yet hopeful that Europe will eventually blink and rescue the hapless Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras.
If a deal is not reached in the next couple of weeks to avoid Grexit, the EU will be reduced, Greece will have to beg for credit while printing useless drachmas, and many other countries will shiver: Spain, Portugal, Italy. Tsipras will win and lose elections like the ins and outs of a Greek concertina, the streets of Athens will be crowded with proud demonstrators, and Varoufakis will write his memoirs. All the smart Greek kids will leave the country in just a few years.
So Grexit would not be a geopolitical tragedy, no, but rather a nasty Greek-European tragedy, unless a benign deus ex machina pops up soon. Mario Draghi as Athena, anyone?